Reliability Assessment of an Underground Transformer Vault Using Monte Carlo Simulation with Weibull Failure Modeling
Conference
Iqbal, H, Khan, U, Sarwat, A. (2025). Reliability Assessment of an Underground Transformer Vault Using Monte Carlo Simulation with Weibull Failure Modeling
. 10.1109/ETFG61999.2025.11401928
Iqbal, H, Khan, U, Sarwat, A. (2025). Reliability Assessment of an Underground Transformer Vault Using Monte Carlo Simulation with Weibull Failure Modeling
. 10.1109/ETFG61999.2025.11401928
Reliability assessment of underground distribution systems is essential for ensuring secure and continuous power delivery in urban networks. Traditional methods such as analytical models have provided valuable insights but often rely on simplifying assumptions that overlook the time-varying and stochastic nature of component failures and repairs. These limitations reduce accuracy when predicting outage behavior and component contributions. This paper introduces a time-based Monte Carlo simulation framework integrated with Weibull failure modeling to overcome these challenges. The Monte Carlo approach captures random variability across long time horizons, while the Weibull model accounts for realistic aging and wearout mechanisms in distribution components. The framework is applied to underground transformer vaults, a critical yet vulnerable part of urban infrastructure. Simulation results highlight cables as the dominant source of failures and downtime, aligning with practical observations. Compared to existing deterministic approaches, the proposed method provides greater accuracy and finer granularity. Validation against empirical reliability indices confirms its effectiveness, offering utilities a practical tool for asset management and planning.
