Quantifying Spatiotemporal Drought Dynamics Under Climate Change in the Abbay River Basin, Ethiopia
Book Chapter
Tegegne, G, Melesse, AM. (2025). Quantifying Spatiotemporal Drought Dynamics Under Climate Change in the Abbay River Basin, Ethiopia
. Part F762 321-339. 10.1007/978-3-031-65241-7_13
Tegegne, G, Melesse, AM. (2025). Quantifying Spatiotemporal Drought Dynamics Under Climate Change in the Abbay River Basin, Ethiopia
. Part F762 321-339. 10.1007/978-3-031-65241-7_13
Changes in droughtDroughts intensity and frequency have a greater detrimental effect on hydrological ecosystem services. Consequently, this study examined how droughtsDroughts in the Abbay River BasinAbbay River Basin's meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological components will be influenced by climate changeClimate change. This study used the standardized precipitation indexStandardized precipitation index (SPI) to explore the impact of climate changeClimate change on the frequency of meteorological droughtDroughts (using the 3-month SPI), agricultural droughtAgricultural drought (using the 6-month SPI) and hydrological droughtDroughts (using the 12-month SPI). The analysis of the SPI using five GCMsGlobal Climate Models (GCMs) in the Abbay River BasinAbbay River Basin revealed that the effects of meteorological droughtDroughts are more exacerbated in the agricultural and hydrological sectors as the duration increases. The frequency of droughtsDroughts will increase in the northern regions while decreases in the southern regions of the Abbay River BasinAbbay River Basin. Overall, the results showed that the risk of droughtDroughts in the study basin will rise in the middle future (2031–2060) and potentially decline in the far future (2061–2090) under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The analysis of climate change impactClimate change impact on the intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curve revealed that the frequency of droughtDroughts occurrence will be more than 20% and 15% in 2031–2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Hence, this study recommends that significant efforts be devoted in a timely manner to minimizing the vulnerability of droughtsDroughts to climate changeClimate change. Therefore, this study recommends that early and considerable measures be made to reduce the susceptibility of agricultural and hydrological systems to the extreme droughtsDroughts under climate changeClimate change.
