FIELD VALIDITY OF THE STATIC-99 AND MnSOST-R AMONG SEX OFFENDERS EVALUATED FOR CIVIL COMMITMENT AS SEXUALLY VIOLENT PREDATORS Article

Boccaccini, MT, Murrie, DC, Caperton, JD et al. (2009). FIELD VALIDITY OF THE STATIC-99 AND MnSOST-R AMONG SEX OFFENDERS EVALUATED FOR CIVIL COMMITMENT AS SEXUALLY VIOLENT PREDATORS . PSYCHOLOGY PUBLIC POLICY AND LAW, 15(4), 278-314. 10.1037/a0017232

cited authors

  • Boccaccini, MT; Murrie, DC; Caperton, JD; Hawes, SW

authors

abstract

  • Despite their widespread use in forensic and correctional practice, surprisingly little research investigates how well actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) for sexual offenders work within the contexts where they are routinely applied. We examined the predictive validity (M = 4.77 years follow-up) of the two most widely used ARAIs for sexual offenders, the STATIC-99 and Minnesota Sex Offender Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R), as administered in routine practice among 1,928 offenders screened for possible civil commitment as sexually violent predators. Effect sizes for both ARAIs were lower than in most published research and meta-analytic reviews, although the STATIC-99 was a more consistent predictor of recidivism than the MnSOST-R. Recidivism rates for the STATIC-99 were much closer to those expected based on the 2009 norms than the 2003 norms. Offender characteristics (e.g., age at release, prior arrests, release type) were often as or more effective than ARAIs for predicting recidivism. This study, apparently the largest cross-validation study of popular ARAIs for sex offenders, suggests that the predictive validity of these measures in routine practice in the United States may be poorer than often assumed. © 2009 American Psychological Association.

publication date

  • November 1, 2009

published in

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

start page

  • 278

end page

  • 314

volume

  • 15

issue

  • 4