Using probabilistic crew production rate to simulate schedule-related risks in construction projects
Conference
Orabi, W, Sheykhi, R, El-Anwar, O. (2013). Using probabilistic crew production rate to simulate schedule-related risks in construction projects
. 1(January), 469-477.
Orabi, W, Sheykhi, R, El-Anwar, O. (2013). Using probabilistic crew production rate to simulate schedule-related risks in construction projects
. 1(January), 469-477.
Risks are inherent in construction and therefore needs to be incorporated in construction project planning. To this end, existing stochastic planning models use historical activity duration data to model time uncertainties and simulate project durations. This approach does not take into consideration the impact of day-to-day changes on time-related risk factors (e.g. weather, labor availability, and trade coordination) and their associated uncertainties. Therefore, simulation of crew production rate can provide a more accurate representation of these time-related uncertainties. This paper therefore presents the development of a new stochastic planning model that uses historical crew production rate data to simulate both activity and project durations. The model uses Monte Carlo simulation with beta distributions to capture day-to-day and shift-to-shift changes in crew production rate. In addition, the model also considers the impact of sharing a limited pool of resources on the construction duration of a portfolio of projects rather than single projects. An application example is analyzed to evaluate the performance of the new model and demonstrate its capabilities.
