HAZUS-MH Validation Study for Building Damage at Mexico Beach, Florida, from Hurricane Michael in 2018
Article
Sypniewski, J, Amini, M, Cox, DT et al. (2026). HAZUS-MH Validation Study for Building Damage at Mexico Beach, Florida, from Hurricane Michael in 2018
. ASCE-ASME JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN ENGINEERING SYSTEMS PART A-CIVIL ENGINEERING, 12(3), 10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1740
Sypniewski, J, Amini, M, Cox, DT et al. (2026). HAZUS-MH Validation Study for Building Damage at Mexico Beach, Florida, from Hurricane Michael in 2018
. ASCE-ASME JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN ENGINEERING SYSTEMS PART A-CIVIL ENGINEERING, 12(3), 10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1740
This study performs a model-To-data validation of Hazards US Multi-Hazard (HAZUS-MH) Level 1 (basic level using generalized national database) and Level 2 analyses (advanced level, including user-defined hazard data and building inventory). A comparative analysis of predicted and observed structural damage was conducted using a hindcast of Hurricane Michael (2018)-impacted buildings in Mexico Beach, Florida. The validation was performed through field observations and virtual damage assessment, as well as the quality assurance and quality control (QAQC) procedure to ensure the quality of datasets and to understand uncertainty in first-floor elevation (FFE) and damage states (DSs). The QAQC results indicate that the uncertainty in DS is greater for buildings with lower DSs. The uncertainty in FFE measurements is represented by the average root mean squared error (RMSE), which is 0.56 m (1.84 ft). The validation result shows that the Level 2 analysis is generally more accurate than the Level 1 analysis. For the Level 2 analysis, the results at the aggregated level are more accurate than at the building level, with 91% and 64% accuracy, respectively. The sensitivity analysis shows that the choice of flood depth grids significantly affects the accuracy of results, particularly for the Level 1 analysis. The Level 2 analysis predicts DS for buildings with slab-on-grade foundations more accurately than for buildings with crawl-space foundations. The combined wind and flood damage model shows an overall better performance, demonstrating the importance of considering the multihazard event for accurate damage and risk assessment.
