Revisiting the divisive primary hypothesis: 2008 and the Clinton-Obama nomination battle Article

Makse, T, Sokhey, AE. (2010). Revisiting the divisive primary hypothesis: 2008 and the Clinton-Obama nomination battle . American Politics Research, 38(2), 233-265. 10.1177/1532673X09359560

cited authors

  • Makse, T; Sokhey, AE

abstract

  • The 2008 Democratic primary was marked by divisiveness as notable as its historic candidates. And while Barack Obama won the general election,political scientists would be remiss in studying divisive primary effects only when they are electorally decisive. Accordingly, we examine this largely forgotten storyline, searching for these effects throughout different segments of the electorate. Our analysis pursues evidence at multiple levels, focusing on the illustrative case of Franklin County in the bellwether state of Ohio. First, we use aggregate data and ecological inference to ascertain levels of abstention and defection among Clinton supporters, noting patterns in precincts. Next, we analyze original survey data drawn from individuals observed displaying yard signs, examining rates of participation within this engaged population. Overall, the evidence suggests that the primary produced lasting effects in terms of turnout, defection, and other participatory acts-effects that might have cost Obama the presidency under different circumstances. © The Author(s) 2010.

authors

publication date

  • March 1, 2010

published in

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

start page

  • 233

end page

  • 265

volume

  • 38

issue

  • 2