The ocean's role in modeling and predicting seasonal-to-interannual climate variations Book Chapter

Kirtman, BP, Stockdale, T, Burgman, R. (2013). The ocean's role in modeling and predicting seasonal-to-interannual climate variations . 103 625-643. 10.1016/B978-0-12-391851-2.00024-6

cited authors

  • Kirtman, BP; Stockdale, T; Burgman, R

authors

abstract

  • This chapter summarizes the scientific basis for and the current status of seasonal-to-interannual prediction with particular emphasis on the role of the tropical oceans. The first part of the chapter focuses on oceanic sources of predictability in the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Seasonal-to-interannual predictability issues in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics are also discussed. Mechanisms that limit predictability, particularly for ENSO, are highlighted. The second part of the chapter describes the forecast quality and procedures in practice today. Finally, the concluding remarks identify some outstanding challenges. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

publication date

  • January 1, 2013

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

start page

  • 625

end page

  • 643

volume

  • 103