Disasters and political unrest: an empirical investigation Article

Drury, AC, Olson, RS. (1998). Disasters and political unrest: an empirical investigation . 6(3), 153-161. 10.1111/1468-5973.00084

cited authors

  • Drury, AC; Olson, RS



  • A connection between disasters and political unrest has often been suggested, but only case studies/anecdotes have been offered as evidence. To test statistically for a disaster-political unrest relationship, a causal model is developed that posits a direct and positive linkage between disaster severity and ensuing levels of political unrest. The model further specifies that increased levels of development, income equality, and regime repressiveness dampen post-disaster political unrest. Using a time-series between 1966 and 1980, Poisson regression results strongly corroborate the model. The exception is income equality, which has the opposite of the originally hypothesized effect.

publication date

  • January 1, 1998

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

start page

  • 153

end page

  • 161


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